Archaeological Debates About King David

In this week's New Yorker (here), Ruth Margalit examines archaeological-historical-religious debates in Israel.

Margalit's primary focus is Israel Finkelstein, a 71-year old archaeologist who argues that King David and King Solomon were either (1) purely figures of fiction/myth or (2) at most, the leaders of a small chiefdom of minimal historical or political significance:

"... A wily, resourceful man from Bethlehem decides that his people are meant for more than lightning raids and mercenary stints. He sends his men to rout an advancing force, then shares the loot with the highland elders. This wins over the highlanders, and, in time, they make him chieftain of the southern hill area. 

He takes over the tribal center of Hebron, and later captures Jerusalem, another hilltop stronghold. 

The chieftain moves his extended family to the main homes of the Jerusalem village, and settles in one himself—a palace, some might call it, though there is nothing extravagant about it. He rules over a neglected chiefdom of pastoralists and outlaws. His name is David."

Finkelstein's argument rests on the limited physical evidence of the biblical Solomonic kingdom (referred to as the United Kingdom) that is claimed to have existed during the 9th century BCE.

His argument is influential but not entirely accepted among other archaeologists. For instance, in 2005, an archaeologist named Eilat Mazar discovered the walls of a large public building on a slope that descends from the Temple Mount, and she claims that this building was part of the biblical capital city.

Finkelstein and Mazar are representative of a debate between two camps of scholars known as maximalists and minimalists: "If maximalists treat the Bible as verifiable fact, the minimalists treat it as fiction: a near-mythological account, composed between 500 and 200 BC, that should be understood within a purely literary framework."

This article is helpful for me because it connects and overlaps with the intra-Christian debate (which I'm currently thinking about as I read The Evangelicals) between those who read the Bible as factual/historical and those who view it as metaphorical.

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Since I was a teenager, I've been more drawn to history than archaeology. I liked the feeling that a person could uncover the "truth" as a historian, whereas archaeology was more about conjecture and mystery.

As I've grown older and realized just how much ambiguity is embedded in language -- and how much language depends on the perspective of the author and his/her social context -- I've realized that the fields of archaeology and history are more similar than I thought.

This is part of the "Large Stone Structure," which Eilat Mazar claims may have been part of King David's palace

Nek Muhammad and the Origins of US Drone Policy

Mark Mazzetti has an article in this morning's Times (here) about the switch in U.S. policy from capturing terrorists to killing them.

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Mazzetti dates the change in policy to 2004.  He says that a major impetus was CIA Inspector General John Helgerson's report about the abuse of detainees in the CIA's secret prisons.  The report provoked such a political backlash (and concern among CIA operatives about potential legal liability) that policy makers turned to drones to provide a "cleaner" solution.

575. Does Mazzetti think the move towards assassinations-by-drone (rather than detention) was a conscious political decision, or does he think Bush, and then Obama, convinced themselves it was a tactical/military change?

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The article breaks the story of a deal between Pakistan and the United States in which we agreed to kill Nek Muhammad in exchange for Pervez Musharraf's permission to conduct drone operations in Pakistani airspace.

Muhammad was a Pashtun tribesman from Waziristan.  He harbored some al Qaeda terrorists, but he was more concerned with attacking Pakistani interests than with opposing/attacking the US ("the CIA had been monitoring the rise of Mr. Muhammad, but officials considered him to be more Pakistan's problem than America's").

Muhammad was killed by a drone strike. Moving forward, the US was allowed to conduct drone strikes as pre-approved by Pakistan, and ISI and CIA agreed that Pakistan would either take credit for all killings or remain silent as to their source.

576. This article highlights the incredible entanglement and complexity of US and Pakistani interests.  After the death of Richard Holbrooke, who are the key US figures/diplomats in unwinding us from Afghanistan and Pakistan?  Will Chuck Hagel have any success in that part of the world?  Is he respected there?

577. What is Obama's primary justification for so many drone strikes?  The policy continues to confound me (particularly the expansion of it into other parts of the world).  Is the reliance on drones coming more from Obama himself (and if so, why?), or are his advisors convincing him that drones are the "least bad" option?

This picture is by Kamran Wazir/Reuters and is from this morning's Times.  Nek Muhammad is the man in the center-front.  This is an incredibly dramatic photo, in particular Muhammad's stance and the way that his pink/orange cloth sets him off from the rest of the group.

Obama and Morsi Working Together

This is a picture of Israelis watching a Palestinian attack. The photo is by Lefteris Pitarakis.

 

There is good news on Thanksgiving morning: Israel and Hamas have agreed to a cease fire.

There had been widespread fighting for 8 days after Israel began bombing Gaza in retaliation for periodic rocket attacks.

Hillary Clinton has been in Egypt the past couple of days working on the cease fire, and it sounds like she has continued to do a good job as Secretary of State. And a significant back-story is that President Obama and Mohamed Morsi are developing a positive working relationship. 

Here's an excerpt from Peter Baker and David Kirkpatrick in this morning's Times:

The cease-fire brokered between Israel and Hamas and on Wednesday was the official unveiling of this unlikely new geopolitical partnership, one with bracing potential if not a fair measure of risk for both men. After a rocky start to their relationship, Mr. Obama has decided to invest heavily in the leader whose election caused concern because of his ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, seeing in him an intermediary who might help make progress in the Middle East beyond the current crisis in Gaza.  

The White House phone log tells part of the tale. Mr. Obama talked with Mr. Morsi three times within 24 hours and six times over the course of several days, an unusual amount of one-on-one time for a president. Mr. Obama told aides he was impressed with the Egyptian leader’s pragmatic confidence. He sensed an engineer’s precision with surprisingly little ideology. Most important, Mr. Obama told aides that he considered Mr. Morsi a straight shooter who delivered on what he promised and did not promise what he could not deliver.  

“The thing that appealed to the president was how practical the conversations were — here’s the state of play, here are the issues we’re concerned about,” said a senior administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations. “This was somebody focused on solving problems.”  

The Egyptian side was also positive about the collaboration. Essam el-Haddad, the foreign policy adviser to the Egyptian president, described a singular partnership developing between Mr. Morsi, who is the most important international ally for Hamas, and Mr. Obama, who plays essentially the same role for Israel.

This is encouraging news.

 

One of Obama's great first term achievements was reaching out to other countries to re-establish a positive role for America in the world (notwithstanding his bad decisions on the war in Afghanistan), and I hope that he will continue to make these relationships a priority.

 

563. How is the cease fire -- and Morsi's working together with Obama -- being received in Egypt, especially among the more hard-line members of his party?

Christopher Stevens

 

Christopher Stevens was the US Ambassador to Libya.  He arrived there last year in the midst of the fighting. 

 

Stevens and three other Americans were killed on September 11 at the embassy in Benghazi.

 

Stevens sounds like a great person: dedicated to the mission of diplomacy, to improving understanding between people. He did so by starting with personal relationships and expanding-out to national policy. This makes his death by an act of violence especially sad. 

 

Here is an excerpt from Anne Gearan's obituary in the Washington Post:

The improbable journey was fitting for Mr. Stevens, a former Peace Corps volunteer who was fluent in Arabic and who had traveled throughout the Middle East. An easygoing but determined career diplomat, he had made the region the focus of his two-decade career.  

Funny and charming, with a broad smile and wide curiosity, Mr. Stevens made friends easily and kept them, colleagues said. "During a meeting, he was very proper and professional. Having a coffee after the meeting, he was very friendly” and asked a lot of questions, said Ghaith al-Omari, a former top adviser to the Palestinian Authority. “You ended up with a diplomat who had texture.”

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Stevens grew up near Oakland and was 52. He was not married and didn't have any children.

 

There has been some debate in the US about whether the embassy attack was the result of a spontaneous protest or a pre-planned mission by al Qaeda affiliates.  The Republicans have alleged this past week that the Obama administration is reluctant to blame the attack on terrorists because they want to show progress in the fight against al Qaeda.

 

557. How many Americans are living in Libya now, either on their own or as part of the diplomatic mission? Have some of them been evacuated since the attack?

 

558. Where are Qaddafi's sons, and are any of them being prosecuted?

 

559. Which country is most likely to stabilize in terms of its domestic and international politics: Libya, Tunisia or Egypt?

 

 

Mohamed Morsi

Mohamed Morsi was declared the winner of Egypt's presidential election today, with 52% of the vote.

Morsi is the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, and he defeated Ahmed Shafiq (a former prime minister under Hosni Mubarak, and supported by the military) in a runoff.

He is the first Islamist to be elected the head of state of an Arab country.

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According to the Post, there are large celebrations in Tahrir Square.

Morsi is officially resigning from the Muslim Brotherhood and "sought in recent days to gain the confidence of liberal and secular factions, promising a broad coalition government that would preserve the rights of women and Christians."

Ernesto Londono and Karin Brulliard summarize some of the potential consequences as follows:

Morsi’s election is sure to viewed as an inspiration to other Islamist movements in the Muslim world. It is also likely to be viewed as a potential threat by Israel, which depended on the Mubarak regime to adhere to a 35-year-old peace treaty between the two countries, and with skepticism by some secular, female and Christian Egyptians.

Conversely, it could buoy Hamas, the militant Islamist group that rules the Gaza Strip and is an offshoot of the Brotherhood. Hamas officials are hopeful that an Islamist president will lead Egypt to reconsider the peace treaty, to more aggressively back the Palestinian national cause and to allow goods to be traded across the Gaza-Egypt border.

But changes to the treaty could imperil foreign aid to Egypt from the United States, which views the peace treaty as a centerpiece of its Middle East policy. Brotherhood leaders have said renegotiating the treaty is not their priority.

It's unclear from the article how much power Morsi will actually yield. Perhaps Egypt's new system of government will put primary authority with the prime minister, rather than the President? 

545. I've never quite understood why some parliamentary systems are run by the prime minister/chancellor (for example, Germany) whereas others are President-centric (France and Italy, for example). What's the difference between the two types of systems?

546. Periodically there is discussion of the United States using a Parliamentary system of government, rather than a President and bicameral legislature.  The theory is that things can actually get accomplished by the party in power, whereas the US system is often bogged down by opposition.  Would a Parliamentary system help us to more effectively address some of our long term issues (the debt, health care, and energy policy)?

Massacre in Syria

The situation in Syria has not improved this spring, notwithstanding an (intended) U.N.-brokered cease fire that took effect in April.

On Friday, over 100 civilians were killed in the community of Houla, which is close to Homs. Yesterday the Security Council unanimously condemned the killings and explicitly blamed the Assad government.

Security Council's action was a particularly big deal because China and Russia supported the resolution; up until now, they have backed Assad.

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This photo of victims from Houla is from the Shaam News Network. The Post states it is still trying to verify the photo.

According to the Post this morning (Liz Sly and Colum Lynch, here), the massacre may have been a reprisal for rebels having killed two Syrian army officers.

It sounds like the area around Homs is ethnically mixed, with Alawite communities (Assad is an Alawite) interspersed with Sunni areas. Perhaps this is why Homs is a focal point of the protests and violence.

The Assad government is denying responsibility for the massacre. Sly and Lynch state that there are different stories about whether the civilians (including 32 children) were killed at close range or by mortar shells. Residents say that the perpetrators were shabiha, groups of armed civilians who went from house to house killing people.

Today, Kofi Annan is scheduled to visit Damascus. Annan is the U.N.-Arab League special envoy for Syria.

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542. Is anyone in the Obama administration advocating for a more aggressive US intervention in Syria?

543. In Bosnia, was the Srebenica massacre a motivating cause for more intervention, or has it only become widely known about in retrospect?  I have been thinking about Srebenica while reading abo-ut the violence in Houla.

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Speaking of US intervention overseas: Anne Applebaum wrote an op-ed (here) from Libya this past week, and it sounds like there is considerable lingering societal upheaval there. 

I could not tell whether Applebaum is optimistic or pessimistic about the course of events in Libya. I guess her uncertainty was the point:

In a society where everything has been controlled for more than four decades, a vacuum can be creative. Civil society, unknown in Libya until the revolution last year, has begun to reformulate, and civic groups have emerged to help care for refugees and to lobby on their behalf. The brand-new Libyan Housing Authority, a charity, helped arrange for journalists to go to Janzour. The camp itself has elected a spokesman, and tribal leaders are negotiating with the Misratans about a possible return. But just as a vacuum can produce constructive forces, it can produce destructive ones too. Janzour has been attacked more than once by armed militia members from Misrata. In a recent raid, five people were killed.

Syria Continued

The violence in Syria remains the big international story this winter. There are almost daily reports about protesters being killed. Several journalists have died covering the story.

There is increasing discussion about the possibility of providing military aid to opposition groups including the Free Syrian Army.

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Yesterday there was a conference (among the "Friends of Syria"), held in Tunis and attended by 70 countries.

There is still plenty of disagreement about how to proceed. The Saudi Foreign Minister (Saud al Faisal) advocated arming the opposition, whereas the Tunisians oppose military intervention. 

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Hillary Clinton came out strongly against the Russians (earning praise from Shields and Brooks on last night's News Hour), stating "It is just despicable ... whose side are they on?  They are clearly not on the side of the Syrian people."

Also during the conference, Clinton met with Burhan Ghalioun, the president of the Syrian National Council, one of the opposition groups. Determining who represents "the opposition" is proving problematic for the US and other outsiders.

529. How was Tunis chosen as the host city for yesterday's conference? Who is leading the Tunisian government? The fact that they are hosting the conference bodes well for the order and stability there.

530. Is Assad communicating and/or coordinating his actions with Putin or the Iranian leadership?  Re: Assad's supporters, the most surprising news in this morning's paper is that Hamas came out yesterday in favor of the opposition.

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On a completely different note, UVa plays Carolina today at John Paul Jones. We have won our last two games (beating Maryland and Tech in the same week!) and a victory over UNC would give us 9 ACC wins on the year and provide great momentum entering March.

Syria

Political protest in Syria — and the Assad regime's violent response — continues to be one of the primary international news stories. There have been 5,000 to 6,000 deaths from the violence in the past year.

The bizarre recent twist to the story is Russia's unwillingness to join the international effort to compel Assad to step down.

The international consensus (in favor of Assad's removal) has coalesced during the past few months, following the Arab League's statement in November demanding that Syria's government (1) withdraw its troops from the cities and (2) release all political prisoners.

520. I was (and remain) surprised by the Arab League's firm position against Assad. I anticipated that they would give Assad more leeway, as a show of Arab solidarity. What is motivating them? Is it the desire to improve Arab states' standing in the international community?  A genuine turn toward democracy?

521. Is there a political or non-political figure (a literary figure, perhaps?)  in the Arab world who is particularly respected across national borders? 

522. Are the individuals behind the Arab League's actions analogous to "Euro-zone diplomats" or are they identified with their national governments?

523. How do everyday Syrians feel about the Arab League's position?  Do they see it as a capitulation to the West?

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The Post is reporting this morning that more than 200 protesters were killed yesterday in the city of Homs.  This is one of the largest episodes of violence so far.

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Vitaly Churkin is Russia's representative at the United Nations.

According to several recent articles, Churkin has stated unequivocally that Russia will not support a UN-sponsored transition from Assad to a new Syrian government.

Here's an exerpt from a January 28 article in the Post:

Critics say Moscow’s tough line at the United Nations reflects what one senior council diplomat described as “the Putinization of Russian foreign policy,” on the eve of what many expect will be the return of Vladimir Putin to the presidency.

Other analysts say Russia is trying to reassert its authority in the council following a period in which the United States and Europe prevailed in the handling of several major crises, engineering the downfall of former Ivory Coast leader Laurent Gbagbo and, more recently, of Moammar Gaddafi in Libya.

“The Russians looked diminished in the first half of 2011, and the strategy is to show, one, they are prepared to act as a spoiler, but, two, they can also lay out a more proactive agenda,” said Richard Gowan. 

524. What are the practical (non-symbolic) reasons for Russia's support of Assad?  I have read about two reason so far: (1) Russian manufacturers sell military supplies to Syria, and (2) there is a Russian naval port on the Mediterranean coast of Syria, in the city of Tartus.

I had not realized that Syria has coastline on the Mediterranean.  I guess I thought that Lebanon had all of the coastline above Israel.  Here's a map:

525. What does the Russian navy do in Tartus?  Is this base a remnant of the Cold War "spheres of influence," or has it been built more recently?

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We saw an interesting interview recently, on the PBS Newshour, with the King of Jordan, Abdullah II.

He struck me as brilliant - thoughtful, complex, cosmopolitan. I pictured him, Obama and Clinton talking long into the night about global politics.

King Abdullah talked about his family being socially acquainted with Assad's family, and he said that he thinks Assad is being controlled by forces larger than him.

Unfortunately he was not clear about the nature of those forces. I assume that he meant the Syrian military calls the shots, but I would think that Assad could influence the military, rather than vice versa.

526. Which of the following cities would I most like to visit: Damascus, Baghdad, or Tehran?  My initial thought is Baghdad (perhaps Father Hicks is still there?), but any of the three would be amazing.

527. Has an American President ever traveled to Damascus, either before or after his term in office? I imagine that Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton may have done so in the past ten years.  Is either of them talking with the Syrians or the Arab League about possible solutions?

528. In America, I often see Afghan, Turkish and Lebanese restaurants, but I cannot remember a Syrian restaurant. Why not? What's the most popular food in Syria?

King Abdullah II of Jordan

International News Recap for 2011

 

Internationally, the biggest event of 2011 was the Arab Spring.

For 2-3 weeks in January and February, we watched the coverage each night from Tahrir Square. It was amazing how the spark spread, so quickly, from Tunisia to Egypt to Libya, Bahrain and Syria. It was reminiscent of the protests in Eastern Europe in 1989 -- and similarly inspiring.

502. What is the current status of Hosni Mubarak's trial? Is he being tried in Egypt or elsewhere?

503. Will 2011 achieve the historical/symbolic significance of 1989?  1989 is the year of my life that's most perceived as a historical watershed; could 2011 become a similar turning point?

504. Is democracy the "natural" political state for humans?  Among a group of hunter-gatherers, is the preference for group decision making or for a single leader (or small group of leaders)?  Or are hunter-gatherers the wrong frame of reference, since most societies are no longer organized that way?

505. Will the Muslim Brotherhood continue to do well in the coming rounds of elections in Egypt? If so, what will the United States reaction be?

506. Was Tahrir Square an important place in Cairo prior to 2011?

507. If Obama is re-elected, will Hilary remain the Secretary of State for the entire second term?  I feel like the number of 8 year Secretary of States is small (have there been any - perhaps Dulles for Eisenhower?).

508. Hilary has done a great job as Secretary of State. How often do she and Obama talk?  Do they like each other?  Have they developed a relationship as friends or is it purely professional?

509. What will happen in Syria in 2012? I can't believe how much violence is happening there without all that much global/U.N. outrage.  Will there be a tipping point this year?

Iraq Update: Finally the Formation of a Government?

Ayad Allawi, the leader of Iraqiya: What's their stance on the new Iraqi government?

There's a confusing article on the Washington Post's site tonight (here) about the negotiations to form a government in Iraq.

According to Karen DeYoung, an agreement was reached to appoint Nouri al-Maliki as Prime Minster and Jalal Talabani as President. However, the Iraqiya bloc (headed by Ayad Allawi) staged a mass walk-out of Parliament, and it's unclear from DeYoung's article whether the agreement remains in place or not:

The walkout dealt a setback to what was expected to be a turning point in the impasse that has paralyzed Iraqi politics since inconclusive elections in March. After the departure of Iraqiya, which won the most seats in Iraq's parliament by a slim margin, the remaining 232 lawmakers continued to a presidential vote without them - a move that observers feared could cause a national crisis. Thursday's session had been expected to go smoothly after all major blocs agreed late Wednesday to participate based upon mutual understandings. 

Before the walkout, the agreement provided for Iraqiya to appoint (1) the speaker of Parliament (Osama Nujaifi, who I have not previously heard of) and (2) the leader of a new "strategic council."

My last post about Iraq was in July, here.  I guess it's been almost the entirety of 2010 with the government there in a state of flux.  Are we fortunate that there hasn't been more violence?  The Post tonight describes Iraqiya as largely Sunni-backed, although Allawi is a Shiite and I thought the previous articles presented Iraqiya as the secular party.

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483.  I read this week that Jim Webb may replace Robert Gates as Secretary of Defense (I think Gates plans to retire in January).  Is Webb the leading contender?

484.  How is Webb's work on prison reform coming along? 

485.  Is George Allen the most likely Republican challenger to Webb in 2012?

The really big news yesterday is that Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson released the "big picture" proposals for the debt commission.  As far as initial reactions to their proposals: Sean Hannity and Rachel Maddow were both strongly opposed (from the right and the left), and I was very much in-favor.

Ben-Zion Netanyahu and a Potential Israeli Attack on Iran

Ben-Zion and Benjamin Netanyahu

In the current issue of The Atlantic (here), Jeffrey Goldberg predicts a possible Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear facilities in the next 9 months to 3 years, if (a) the United States does not act first and/or (b) Iran does not back down from their effort to obtain the bomb.

Goldberg's article reminds me of two prior Atlantic articles, from five years ago or so.  In one, the writer predicted the next wave of terrorist attacks against the US (beginning, I believe, in Las Vegas casinos), and in the other the writer predicted a global economic collapse triggered by Fidel Castro's death. The economic collapse article did not get the details right, but it was a (more or less) prescient preview of what actually occurred to the global economy in 2008.

I think this kind of article is helpful in terms of provocatively forcing people to think about (and address) potential future crises.

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One of the fascinating parts of Goldberg's article is his profile of Benjamin Netanyahu's 100-year old father, Ben-Zion.

According to Goldberg, Ben-Zion is completely devoted to the defense of Israel (and the Zionist ideal) and a strong proponent of pre-emptive military action if necessary.  Goldberg thinks that Ben-Zion's psychological influence on his son is very strong (think George H.W. on W., but with the nation's existence at stake) and could, therefore, contribute to a decision to order a strike on the Iranian facilities.

The Bushehr Facility Opens in Iran

This picture is by Atta Kenare of Agence France-Presse and is from today's New York Times.

According to an article in today's Times (here), the Iranian nuclear reactor at Bushehr is now open (though not yet operational, if I understand the article correctly).  The Russians and Iranians held a ceremony today to mark the opening.

This is Iran's first nuclear power plant, and I gather that the Russians take the position that their participation in the project makes it more likely that the plant can only be used for peaceful purposes. 

Russian technicians will operate the plant for the next 2-3 years and gradually hand over responsibility to the Iranians.

465. Are there any Americans who are part of the IAEA inspection teams for Bushehr? Is the inspection process ongoing, or does the IAEA only inspect places like Bushehr periodically?

466. Who is the highest ranking official in the US government who speaks Farsi?  I think Admiral Mullen speaks multiple languages, but I'm not sure that Persian is one of them.

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We've had a wonderful trip up the east coast over the course of the week and have arrived in Maine for Ben's wedding.  The water, sunshine and lush green grass are beautiful and the cool weather feels like fall. I had a great run with Billy through town this morning and enjoyed hearing what he's up to in southern California.  I have not followed the news very closely this week but downloaded the Slate Gabfest and Diane Rehm's Friday Roundup so will catch up some during the drive home.

Iran: Jon Lee Anderson on the Green Movement, Plus Russia Moves Forward on Bushehr

A couple of updates on Iran:

On May 2, I asked "Will there be large-scale protests/marches in Iran in June, to commemorate last year's election protests? There's been relatively little American media follow-up about what the opposition leaders are doing these days."

There were no large commemorations, at least none that received coverage in the US.  In this week's New Yorker, Jon Lee Anderson explains why: Anderson reports that the Green Movement has been largely stifled by the Ahmadinejad government:

"One Iranian, who asked to remain anonymous for his safety, described the movement's status:

'Despotism works.  That's what this situation shows. The reformist movement is over. The middle classes aren't willing to die en masse, and the regime knows this. It has killed and punished just enough people to send the message of what it is capable of doing.'"

Anderson interviewed Ahmadinejad for the article, and Ahmadinejad argues that Obama has not really followed through on the offer to improve diplomatic relations between the US and Iran. My understanding is that Obama is (1) continuing (or toughening) sanctions and (2) trying to maintain a stance that the US will use military force if Iran goes too far on its nuclear program. 

The thought of the US fighting wars in three countries lined up in a row is really difficult to fathom (talk about looking like empire-builders to the rest of the world), and the Iranian leaders probably realize the odds of American public support for a third war are exceedingly low.

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Meanwhile, the other news in Iran this week is that Russia decided to move forward with supplying a nuclear processing facility (in Bushehr, Iran) that could produce the plutonium (or uranium, I'm not sure?) that's necessary to make a nuclear weapon.  Russia argues that it's doing so for economic reasons, and the American media is saying this is a significant setback for the American efforts to stop the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran.

Notwithstanding all the talk of the US/Russia "reset," this development seems to show that Medvedev -- like Putin before him -- is not going to kow-tow to the American agenda.

Iraq: A Perpetual and Too-Large American Presence?

Joe Biden has been in Iraq for the past several days.

The Iraqis have not yet resolved the question of who will be the prime minister; each of al-Maliki and Allawi is trying to establish a coalition. I am not clear how the government is being run during this extended interlude - presumably al-Maliki remains in control?

At the end of August, the U.S. is supposed to complete its drawdown to 50,000 troops.  I do not believe there's been much violence against U.S. troops during 2010. I am not sure about Iraqi vs. Iraqi violence.

My concern/problem is this: I anticipate that these remaining 50,000 troops will be in Iraq for a very long time. I do not approve.  I'd be fine if we kept a couple thousand people on-the-ground to provide continuing support to the Iraqi military and police, but 50,000 sounds more to me like an ongoing (imperialist) endeavor to exert control over another country.

I guess we will see if Obama moves to further decrease the American presence, but given his misguided decision to increase the number of troops in Afghanistan, I am not optimistic.

Israel, the Mavi Marmara, and the Rachel Corrie

On Monday of this week, the Israeli military boarded a Turkish (humanitarian) aid ship that was attempting to deliver supplies through an Israeli blockade to Gaza.  Nine civilians on board the ship were killed in the ensuing batte.

I am putting the word "humanitarian" in parentheses because the legitimacy of the Turkish ship's mission depends on whose story you accept: the Israelis argue that the was a deliberate attempt to provoke Israel -- in other words, that humanitarianism was not the primary goal.

Following the incident, Israel has come in for major criticism. I watched an interesting debate on the Newshour about whether they have the right to impose a naval blockade; the pro-Palestinian commentator argued that blockades are de facto illegal under current international law, while his counterpart said that the UN itself sponsored a long-term blockade during the Balkan conflict of the 1990's.

On Tuesday, Thomas Friedman had harsh words for both Turkey and Israel:

On Turkey: "I have no problem with Turkey or humanitarian groups loudly criticizing Israel. But I have a big problem when people get so agitated by Israel’s actions in Gaza but are unmoved by Syria’s involvement in the murder of the prime minister of Lebanon, by the Iranian regime’s killing of its own citizens demonstrating for the right to have their votes counted, by Muslim suicide bombers murdering nearly 100 Ahmadi Muslims in mosques in Pakistan on Friday and by pro-Hamas gunmen destroying a U.N.-sponsored summer camp in Gaza because it wouldn’t force Islamic fundamentalism down the throats of children."

On Israel: "It is overwhelmingly in Israel’s interest to bring more diplomatic imagination and energy to ending this Gaza siege. How long is this going to go on? Are we going to have a whole new generation grow up in Gaza with Israel counting how many calories they each get? That surely can’t be in Israel’s interest. Israel has gotten so good at controlling the Palestinians that it could get comfortable with an arrangement that will not only erode its own moral fabric but increase its international isolation."

Recep Erdogan is still the prime minister of Turkey. My favorite line of Friedman's piece is his explanation of why the US should put lots of effort into its relationship with Turkey:

443. What are the famous blockades in history?  The one that immediately comes to mind is the blockade of Cuba just before the missile crisis, and I think that there may have been an important one during the Peloponnesian War ... any others?

I’ve long had a soft spot for Turkey. I once even argued that if the European Union wouldn’t admit Turkey, we should invite Turkey to join Nafta. Why? Because I think it really matters whether Turkey is a bridge or ditch between the Judeo-Christian West and the Arab and Muslim East. Turkey’s role in balancing and interpreting East and West is one of the critical pivot points that helps keep the world stable.

444. Does Benjamin Netenyahu have a defined term, or is his situation similar to the prime minister in Britain where -- if he loses the confidence of Parliament/the people -- he could be compelled to call elections early?

445. Supposedly there's an Irish ship - a mission structured similarly to the Turkish one - that will arrive in the "outside of Gaza and Israel" waters this weekend.  Evidently there's a former Nobel Peace Prize winner aboard -- who is she and what did she win the prize for?  Is it the anti-land mine woman?  What will be the outcome of this ship's attempted delivery?  It sounds as though the Israelis are going to try not to provoke any fighting this time around.  I've just done some reading.  The Irish ship is the Rachel Corrie (named for an American who was killed in Gaza in 2003). There are only 11 passengers on board (as compared to several hundred on the Mavi Marmara?); here's an excerpt from The Guardian:

The Rachel Corrie is carrying 11 passengers, including the Scottish Captain Eric Harcis. In addition to six British and Irish citizens on the ship there are six Malaysians, including an MP and a team of journalists ... a spokesman for the Malaysian travellers said they were "determined" to continue the journey towards Gaza. The ship is carrying school supplies, printing paper, children's shoes, wheelchairs, sports equipment and fire extinguishers. Its load was checked by the Irish government before it sailed, according to organisers. Israel bars cement and other building materials from entering Gaza, saying they are often used for building tunnels to smuggle in weapons and explosives.

In this morning's Post, Glenn Kessler reports on the Israeli explanation for what happened :

Israeli forces spent four hours trying to persuade the 300-foot-long Turkish ship to shift course away from Gaza, senior Israeli officials said in a briefing Friday for a small group of reporters.

The activists responded repeatedly with shouts -- "Go back to Auschwitz!" -- and kept the ship at its maximum speed of 10 knots. Now it was 4 a.m., and the ship was 70 miles from the Israeli coast.

Israeli officials ran through the calculations. Colliding with the ship could sink it, given its size and speed. Shooting at a ship with 560 passengers on board, including a baby, could result in casualties. So officials decided to dispatch one commando team (14 soldiers) who would board the upper deck by rappelling off a helicopter, and three other 14-man teams who would board the lower decks by sea.

The officials insist they had no choice but to enforce the blockade of Gaza, controlled by the Hamas militant group, because allowing selective ships to pass would have rendered it legally meaningless. "Either you have a blockade or not," one military official said.

Turkish officials have angrily said that the blockade is illegal, that the assault should not have taken place in international waters and that the use of force was disproportionate and even criminal.

The Iraqi Elections

This picture is by Thaier al-Sudani and is from today's New York Times.

The Iraqi elections were held on Sunday, and they are being portrayed (initially, at least) as a success.

These were the first national elections since 2005. I had not realized it had been that long since national elections. There are 325 seats in Parliament in play, plus the right to become (or remain) Prime Minister.

The coverage focuses on three main parties/coalitions: State of Law (led by Nouri al-Maliki; my prior post is here), Iraqiya (led by Ayad Allawi), and the Iraqi National Alliance (led by Ibrahim al-Jaafari). It sounds as though a major storyline is that al-Maliki is trying to attract Sunni support but that Allawi is having more success actually doing so; meanwhile, al-Jaafari is allied in a Shiite-only group with Chalabi and Muqtada al-Sadr. Jesse Zwick had a good summary in The New Republic last week, here.

There are currently 96,000 US troops in Iraq, and General Odierno has said that his preliminary assessment is that the elections were successful and the troop level will therefore be drawn down to 50,000 by September of this year. I am skeptical that we will really reduce the troops that significantly this year, though I assume that Obama will try to make it happen if at all possible.

The Post reported today that 62% of eligible voters actually voted on Sunday -- if that number is accurate, then that is incredibly promising.

The most interesting question is whether al-Maliki will return as Prime Minister. It sounds like there's some pretty intense opposition; here's Anthony Shadid from today's Times:

Followers of Moktada al-Sadr, have made clear that they oppose Mr. Maliki’s return as prime minister. “It is impossible for Maliki to be the next prime minister,” said Baha al-Aaraji, a Sadrist lawmaker and candidate. “He doesn’t have good relations with any other bloc.” That the jockeying over coalitions was so pitched even before the votes were tallied was a reflection of just how unsettled the political landscape here remains. “The State of Law coalition has drawn no red lines against any alliance,” Ali al-Musawi, a media adviser to Mr. Maliki, said in reference to the prime minister’s list. “We stand in equal distance from all of them.”

My media habit at the moment is that I am increasingly switching my allegiance from Slate to The New Republic, as my third national source (after the Post and the Times). I'm not sure what's causing this; I think the political writers at TNR are better (particularly now that John Dickerson's not writing as much), and I sometimes grow tired of Slate's determined contrarianism.

Leila Fadel at the Post has the latest on the elections here.

Iraq: A Report From Diyala on the Upcoming Elections

The Iraqi elections are scheduled for next Sunday, March 7, but they are still not getting as much coverage in the American media as I'd have expected.

According to Marc Santora in this morning's Times (here), the Sunnis cancelled their boycott of the elections and are now primed to participate. In fact, Santora says that Sunnis in Diyala Province are increasingly convinced that succeeding in elections is the one way they can ensure themselves a spot at the decision-making table:

In some ways, it is an inspiring measure of progress in Iraq that Sunni Muslims, the minority that long ran Iraq under Saddam Hussein, are trusting in the ballot box to improve their fortunes. But the hope they place in politics also reflects weakness: how sharply Sunnis’ choices have narrowed after nearly seven years of war. Past boycotts denied them electoral positions they might have won and deprived them of the spoils of power. Violence drew deadly retribution, from both American soldiers and Shiite death squads. Now elections seem the only way to forge a more formal and enduring political role.

Santora says that Shiites make up about 90% of the Army and police force in Diyala, and he says that there's very little commerce in the Sunni-dominated towns.

Santora writes about Najim al-Harbi, a leader of one of the Sunni parties:

Mr. Harbi, who gained widespread support for his role battling Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, has been the frequent target of assassination attempts, and 23 members of his family have been killed by militants. Six months ago, his 6-year-old son was kidnapped by Al Qaeda and killed. His arrest on terrorism charges, with no evidence made public, stirred anger and was viewed as politically motivated, because his slate of candidates poses a serious challenge to both Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki’s alliance and the candidates of other Shiite parties.

In Santora's article and the other articles I've read, it's unclear whether the elections could contribute to reconciliation or have the opposite effect and cause a new round of violence.

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Diyala Province has a population of about 1.4 million people and was one of the deadliest areas for American troops during the worst of the fighting. The capital is Baqubah, which is where Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed (2006?).

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In this morning's Post, Ernesto Londono and Leila Fadel report (here) that Ahmad Chalabi's recently increased profile is making people nervous. Evidently Chalabi is one of the
most explicit anti-Sunni of the Shiite politicians, and he has been involved in the disqualification of a number of Sunni candidates based on their alleged past ties to the Baath Party.

422. What has happened with Tariq al Hashimi's proposal that 15% (rather than 5%) of parliamentary seats be reserved for exiles -- most of whom are Sunnis? I wrote about the proposal in November, here.

Yemen Is In The News A Lot

Since the attempted terrorist attack on Christmas Day (my earlier posts are here and here), there has been lots of coverage of Yemen. Umar Abdulmutallab had trained there, and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has taken credit for his effort.

I actually thought Yemen was on the east coast of Africa near Somalia. I am not impressed with my geographic knowledge on this.

403. For which other countries do I have a completely mistaken understanding of their location?

Prior to this event, Yemen was last on the US radar after the 2000 USS Cole bombing, which killed 19 US sailors and was the (then-unknown) precursor to the September 11 attacks.

An article by Mark Landler in today's New York Times emphasizes the small amount of US foreign assistance ( = nonmilitary aid) that goes to Yemen: only $63 million this year (as of 2008, it was only $20 million). Here are some other countries' amounts of aid, by comparison:

• Afghanistan: $2.66 billion
• Israel: $2.55 billion
• Egypt: $1.55 billion
• Pakistan: $1.44 billion
• Mexico: $0.43 billion

Landler also reports that very few people in the US government know much about Yemen. John Brennan (Obama's chief counterterrorism adviser) is considered to be one of our leading experts on the country, yet he admitted last week that he was suprised that al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula had the capacity to attempt an actual attack.

404. In five years, will the full body scanners that have been much in the news this past week be the norm in US airports? In what other ways will security change in the next few years?

405. Does the CIA have people working in Yemen? How many State Department employees are there (the embassy was closed briefly after the attempted attack, but I think it's been re-opened now)?

406. Does Richard Clarke advise the Obama Administration either formally or informally?

The president of Yemen is Ali Abdullah Saleh. Landler's article says that Saleh is conflicted about how closely he wants to be allied with the US. This sounds like most leaders in the Middle East and South Asia (I'm thinking particularly of Hamid Karzai at the moment).

407. How long has Saleh been the president? What is their political system?

There is also an insurgency going on in Yemen, but I cannot tell whether it is considered an all-out civil war.

Iraq: Efforts to Ban Alcohol

Ernesto Londono reports in this morning's Washington Post (here) that there is an increasing movement to restrict (or to ban outright) the sale of alcohol in Iraq.

Londono writes that this is illustrative of a broader trend towards more conservative social policies in Iraq:

In recent months, the pendulum has veered toward conservative mores. Government officials, including many competing in the upcoming parliamentary election, have sought to impose stricter limits on alcohol consumption and coeducational schools.

He reports that most liquor stores in Iraq are owned by Christians, and that during the period of Saddam Hussein's rule there was an active nightclub scene in Baghdad.

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The Iraqi elections are now scheduled for March 7. Since October, I have not seen any further references to the State of Law coalition (my post is here). Is al-Maliki still planning to running as a State of Law candidate?

Update on Iran: Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri

There has been minimal coverage of the situation in Iran for several months. I gather that Ahmadinejad and Ali Khamenei succeeded in stifling the protest movement, but it's not clear whether it's a total or partial "stifle."

In this morning's NYT (here), Michael Slackman profiles Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri. Interestingly, Slackman is reporting from Cairo -- are there continued restrictions on Western media in Iran, or is this a NYT budgeting issue?.

According to Slackman, Montazeri is "widely regarded as the most knowledgeable religious scholar in Iran." He was close to Ayatollah Khomeini until they had a falling out because Montazeri began to argue that the regime was relying too much on violence to suppress opposition.

Since the election turmoil this summer, Montazeri has been highly critical of Khamenei; Slackman says that he is "issuing one politically charged religious edict after another, helping keep alive a faltering opposition movement."

366. What is the status of the opposition movement? Are there any street protests going on? How is Moussavi spending his days -- is he part of the government? Is he in Tehran?

367. Does Montazeri lead weekly prayers? What are the similarities and differences between ayatollahs in Islam and bishops in Catholicism?

368. In the United States, are there more Shiites or more Sunnis? Which group is more politically vocal in the United States?

369. Which city in Virginia has the largest per capita number of Muslims?

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Slackman says that there are conflicting viewpoints regarding the extent of Montazeri's influence in Iran:

Some Iran experts argue that Ayatollah Montazeri’s involvement in politics has undermined his religious credibility, and that he does not have as large a following as other grand ayatollahs. But there is evidence, others say, that the recent conflict has increased his popularity among younger Iranians who knew little of him, and that his edicts resonate with the pious masses.